The Canadian model and in particular, the European model, have been more consistent and have kept the storm on more of the northern track depicted above. That could mean a bigger impact storm here in West Virginia. The GFS model has waffled back and forth through various solutions, including both potential tracks shown above. The European has been impressive the past several days in holding steady on a track northward from the Carolinas to the Delmarva coastline. Of course, the Euro could simply just be consistently wrong. But, considering how some of the other models have gone back and forth, the Euro's consistency sticks out like somewhat of a sore thumb. The only question left if you totally buy into the Euro (which I would hesitate to just yet), is how close to the coast does this storm track. If the storm ends up tracking further out to sea, we would see less of an impact here in WV. But a track closer to, along, or even slightly inland along the Virginia coast would mean more and more of an impact here. The two graphics below show potential snowfall being put out by the GFS and Euro through Thursday morning. Please note, these are MODELS...not FORECASTS...
One thing that does look certain is that we should see at least some light accumulations across the area, especially Tuesday night. Hopefully things will become more clear this weekend on exactly what happens with this one.
On a side note, milder weather is expected by the end of next week. I have mentioned before that I am no expert in long range forecasting, but a pattern change looks likely by the end of next week...meaning other than a few brief cool downs, milder weather may be here to stay after another cold week to come.
Have a great weekend!
No comments:
Post a Comment