Beyond The Forecast

Saturday, March 23, 2013

Snowfall Forecast: Sunday Night - Tuesday

Disclaimer: This is my own personal forecast and does not necessarily reflect the forecast at WDTV Channel 5. Please go to WDTV.com for the First Alert Stormcenter Forecast.

Here are my thoughts and what I'm thinking for total snowfall accumulations across the area from this next winter storm:

Friday, March 22, 2013

March 18-22: Flood Safety Awareness Week

March 18th - 22nd is Flood Safety Awareness Week. Here's a nice recap from the National Weather Service in Charleston, WV:

Spring is here, so where's the spring-like weather?

Spring began at 7:02 am on Wednesday, but we haven't seen any spring-like weather since then, and it looks like we have a VERY long road before we do see it. Below is the 7 day forecast for next week and the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlook through April 4th.

You'll notice that we still have plenty more in the way of winter weather to go the next week or two. For what it's worth, precipitation will be a little below normal, so hopefully that will mean not much more in the way of snow. The good news is that beyond early April, there are signs that some more spring-like weather will be rushing in. Longer range forecasts show the jet stream relaxing and heading north into Canada, which would finally allow the eastern half of the country to warm up more permanently. The question still is exactly when that will happen. A few days ago, it looked like next week would be the last week of cold before a more long term warm-up. As of today, it is looking more like a week and a half to two weeks of cold weather before things warm up around April 5th and beyond. Once we do warm things up though, indications are that we'll stay warm for quite some time with above normal temperatures expected through the rest of spring and into summer according to the CPC.

April temperature and precipitation outlooks from the CPC

April, May, and June precipitation outlooks from the CPC

Precipitation will stay near to slightly above normal from April - June according to CPC forecasts. Just wanted to throw a little ray of hope out there that spring will (eventually) be on it's way!

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

The Superstorm of 1993: 20 Years Later

It's hard to believe it's been 20 years since the storm dubbed "The Storm of the Century" hit the eastern third of the country hard March 12-14, 1993.

For me personally, it is the one storm I can point to that sealed the deal as far as me wanting to become a meteorologist. The storm unofficially lead to 270 deaths, including 4 in the Mountain State, 3 in Maryland, and 49 in Pennsylvania. It is of course remembered locally for the incredible and widespread snow it dumped not just here but up and down the Appalachians and even into parts of the deep South.

Some of the more impressive snowfall totals from the storm include:

56 inches on Mount LeConte, TN
50 inches on Mount Mitchell, NC (14-foot drifts)
44 inches in Snowshoe, WV
36 inches in Latrobe, PA (10-foot drifts)
30 inches in Beckley, WV
29 inches in Page County, VA
25 inches in Pittsburgh, PA
20 inches in Chattanooga, TN
19 inches in Asheville, NC
17 inches near Birmingham, AL (6-foot drifts)
16 inches in Roanoke, VA
13 inches in Washington, DC
4 inches in Atlanta, GA

Locally, the storm is also remembered for record low temperatures including:

-10 degrees on Mount LeConte, TN
-5 degrees in Elkins, WV
1 degree in Pittsburgh, PA
2 degrees in Asheville, NC and Birmingham, AL
1 degree in Beckley, WV
18 degrees in Columbia, SC and Atlanta, GA
21 degrees in Mobile, AL
25 degrees in Savannah, GA and Pensacola, FL
31 degrees in Daytona Beach, FL

The storm also caused incredible damage up and down the East Coast with record low pressures and very high winds reported along its path. It is the 4th costliest storm in U.S. history causing more than $1.6 billion in damage. The storm affected over half of the states in the U.S., 26, and about 50% of the country's total population. The storm equated to a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, used to rate hurricanes, due to the storm surge at the coast and the minimum pressure of it.

Below are some of the headlines in the Barbour Democrat in the days following the storm (thanks to viewer Mikia Gould of Philippi for these):

A complete review of this storm from the National Climactic Data Center can be found here: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9301/tr9301.pdf

The National Weather Service in Wilmington, NC put together a nice review of the storm too, including archived video of live coverage of the storm from The Weather Channel: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm/archive/Superstorm93/

Here are some additional reports put together by various groups:

NWS Tallahassee, Fla.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tlh/?n=march1993_superstorm

NWS Tampa Bay Area, Fla.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/?n=93storm

NWS Melbourne, Fla.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=march1993

NWS Birmingham, Ala.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=winter_blizzardof1993

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, S.C.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2013/Review_March1993_Superstorm.pdf

NWS Huntsville, Ala.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/?n=hunsur_1993_03_12-14

NWS Jackson, Ky.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=93281&source=0

NWS Natural Disaster Survey Report on Superstorm of March 1993
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/Superstorm_March-93.pdf

Friday, March 8, 2013

Be a Force of Nature: National Severe Weather Preparedness Week March 3-9, 2013

Know your risk. Take action. Be an example.

Be a Force of Nature this year with National Severe Weather Preparedness Week, March 3-9, 2013.

Lots of great info on creating a severe weather action plan, putting together an emergency preparedness kit, and ways to get the latest weather alerts for the area here:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/force.html