Snowfall Forecast: Sunday Night - Tuesday

Disclaimer: This is my own personal forecast and does not necessarily reflect the forecast at WDTV Channel 5.  Please go to WDTV.com for the First Alert Stormcenter Forecast.

Here are my thoughts and what I'm thinking for total snowfall accumulations across the area from this next winter storm:

March 18-22: Flood Safety Awareness Week

March 18th - 22nd is Flood Safety Awareness Week.  Here's a nice recap from the National Weather Service in Charleston, WV:

 

Spring is here, so where's the spring-like weather?

Spring began at 7:02 am on Wednesday, but we haven't seen any spring-like weather since then, and it looks like we have a VERY long road before we do see it.  Below is the 7 day forecast for next week and the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlook through April 4th.

You'll notice that we still have plenty more in the way of winter weather to go the next week or two.  For what it's worth, precipitation will be a little below normal, so hopefully that will mean not much more in the way of snow.  The good news is that beyond early April, there are signs that some more spring-like weather will be rushing in.  Longer range forecasts show the jet stream relaxing and heading north into Canada, which would finally allow the eastern half of the country to warm up more permanently.  The question still is exactly when that will happen.  A few days ago, it looked like next week would be the last week of cold before a more long term warm-up.  As of today, it is looking more like a week and a half to two weeks of cold weather before things warm up around April 5th and beyond.  Once we do warm things up though, indications are that we'll stay warm for quite some time with above normal temperatures expected through the rest of spring and into summer according to the CPC.

April temperature and precipitation outlooks from the CPC

April, May, and June precipitation outlooks from the CPC

Precipitation will stay near to slightly above normal from April - June according to CPC forecasts.  Just wanted to throw a little ray of hope out there that spring will (eventually) be on it's way!

The Superstorm of 1993: 20 Years Later

It's hard to believe it's been 20 years since the storm dubbed "The Storm of the Century" hit the eastern third of the country hard March 12-14, 1993.

For me personally, it is the one storm I can point to that sealed the deal as far as me wanting to become a meteorologist.  The storm unofficially lead to 270 deaths, including 4 in the Mountain State, 3 in Maryland, and 49 in Pennsylvania.  It is of course remembered locally for the incredible and widespread snow it dumped not just here but up and down the Appalachians and even into parts of the deep South.

Some of the more impressive snowfall totals from the storm include:


 56 inches on Mount LeConte, TN
 50 inches on Mount Mitchell, NC (14-foot drifts)
 44 inches in Snowshoe, WV
 36 inches in Latrobe, PA (10-foot drifts)
 30 inches in Beckley, WV
 29 inches in Page County, VA
 25 inches in Pittsburgh, PA
 20 inches in Chattanooga, TN
 19 inches in Asheville, NC
 17 inches near Birmingham, AL (6-foot drifts)
 16 inches in Roanoke, VA
 13 inches in Washington, DC
 4 inches in Atlanta, GA


Locally, the storm is also remembered for record low temperatures including:


 -10 degrees on Mount LeConte, TN
 -5 degrees in Elkins, WV
 1 degree in Pittsburgh, PA
 2 degrees in Asheville, NC and Birmingham, AL
 1 degree in Beckley, WV
 18 degrees in Columbia, SC and Atlanta, GA
 21 degrees in Mobile, AL
 25 degrees in Savannah, GA and Pensacola, FL
 31 degrees in Daytona Beach, FL

The storm also caused incredible damage up and down the East Coast with record low pressures and very high winds reported along its path.  It is the 4th costliest storm in U.S. history causing more than $1.6 billion in damage.  The storm affected over half of the states in the U.S., 26, and about 50% of the country's total population.  The storm equated to a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, used to rate hurricanes, due to the storm surge at the coast and the minimum pressure of it.


Below are some of the headlines in the Barbour Democrat in the days following the storm (thanks to viewer Mikia Gould of Philippi for these):

A complete review of this storm from the National Climactic Data Center can be found here: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9301/tr9301.pdf

The National Weather Service in Wilmington, NC put together a nice review of the storm too, including archived video of live coverage of the storm from The Weather Channel: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm/archive/Superstorm93/


Here are some additional reports put together by various groups:

NWS Tallahassee, Fla.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tlh/?n=march1993_superstorm

NWS Tampa Bay Area, Fla.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/?n=93storm

NWS Melbourne, Fla.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=march1993

NWS Birmingham, Ala.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=winter_blizzardof1993

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, S.C.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2013/Review_March1993_Superstorm.pdf

NWS Huntsville, Ala.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/?n=hunsur_1993_03_12-14

NWS Jackson, Ky.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=93281&source=0

NWS Natural Disaster Survey Report on Superstorm of March 1993
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/Superstorm_March-93.pdf

Be a Force of Nature: National Severe Weather Preparedness Week March 3-9, 2013

Know your risk. Take action. Be an example.

Be a Force of Nature this year with National Severe Weather Preparedness Week, March 3-9, 2013.

Lots of great info on creating a severe weather action plan, putting together an emergency preparedness kit, and ways to get the latest weather alerts for the area here:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/force.html

Severe Weather Awareness Week: Skywarn Severe Weather Spotters

March 4th - 8th is Severe Weather Awareness Week.  Today's topic is Skywarn severe weather spotters:

For a complete read on Skywarn severe weather spotters, click here.

If you're interested in becoming a Skywarn severe weather spotter, check the dates and times of upcoming classes here:

NWS Charleston, WV

NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Severe Weather Awareness Week: River Floods

March 4th - 8th is Severe Weather Awareness Week.  Today's topic is river floods:

For a complete read on flash floods, click here.

Topics for the rest of the week include:

Friday: Skywarn Severe Weather Spotters

Severe Weather Awareness Week: Flash Floods

March 4th - 8th is Severe Weather Awareness Week.  Today's topic is flash floods:

For a complete read on flash floods, click here.

Topics for the rest of the week include:

Thursday: River Flood Safety

Friday: Skywarn Severe Weather Spotters

Snowfall Forecast Update: Tonight Through Wednesday

Disclaimer: This is my own personal forecast and does not necessarily reflect the forecast at WDTV Channel 5.  Please go to WDTV.com for the First Alert Stormcenter Forecast.

I've upped totals a little, particularly along I-79.  Still a VERY tough call here so any shift on the track of the storm or an earlier or later changeover to snow will greatly impact total snowfall, especially along the I-79 corridor.

Buckle up...I'll see you in the morning!

Severe Weather Awareness Week: Severe Thunderstorms

March 4th - 8th is Severe Weather Awareness Week.  Today's topic is severe thunderstorms:

For a complete read on severe thunderstorms, click here.

Topics for the rest of the week include:

Wednesday: Flash Flood Safety

Thursday: River Flood Safety

Friday: Skywarn Severe Weather Spotters

Snowfall Forecast Tuesday Night Through Wednesday

Disclaimer: This is my own personal forecast and does not necessarily reflect the forecast at WDTV Channel 5.  Please go to WDTV.com for the First Alert Stormcenter Forecast.

Here is what I'm thinking for snowfall totals across the area.

A few notes:
- There will be a sharp cutoff between just a couple of inches and several more.  Right now, it looks like that cutoff will straddle I-79.  This is subject to change and any shift west or east to the track of the storm could greatly change snowfall totals.
- Precip will start as rain in the lowlands and a mix of snow, sleet, and possibly some freezing rain in the mountains tomorrow afternoon.
- Precip will change to all snow everywhere by midnight tomorrow night.
- Expect several hours of moderate to at times heavy snow through Wednesday morning.
- Snow will taper to snow showers for Wednesday afternoon.

Impacts:
- Travel will be treacherous across the area Wednesday morning and through the afternoon and evening in the mountains.
- Visibilities will be reduced to 1/2 to 1/4 mile Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
- Snow will be heavy and wet, which may lead to downed trees and power lines, especially where the heaviest snows fall in the mountains.

I'll post an update tomorrow with any changes as needed.

Severe Weather Awareness Week: Tornadoes and Tornado Safety

March 4th - 8th is Severe Weather Awareness Week.  Today's topic is tornadoes and tornado safety:

For a complete read on tornadoes and tornado safety, click here.

Topics for the rest of the week include:

Tuesday: Thunderstorm Safety

Wednesday: Flash Flood Safety

Thursday: River Flood Safety

Friday: Skywarn Severe Weather Spotters

One Last Hoorah For Winter?

Some of the models have been hinting at the POSSIBILITY of a winter storm across the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic this coming Tuesday and Wednesday.  Impacts from this storm here in the Mountain State are still a little up in the air.  The two graphics below show the two scenarios for this storm:

The Canadian model and in particular, the European model, have been more consistent and have kept the storm on more of the northern track depicted above.  That could mean a bigger impact storm here in West Virginia.  The GFS model has waffled back and forth through various solutions, including both potential tracks shown above.  The European has been impressive the past several days in holding steady on a track northward from the Carolinas to the Delmarva coastline.  Of course, the Euro could simply just be consistently wrong.  But, considering how some of the other models have gone back and forth, the Euro's consistency sticks out like somewhat of a sore thumb.  The only question left if you totally buy into the Euro (which I would hesitate to just yet), is how close to the coast does this storm track.  If the storm ends up tracking further out to sea, we would see less of an impact here in WV.  But a track closer to, along, or even slightly inland along the Virginia coast would mean more and more of an impact here.  The two graphics below show potential snowfall being put out by the GFS and Euro through Thursday morning.  Please note, these are MODELS...not FORECASTS...

One thing that does look certain is that we should see at least some light accumulations across the area, especially Tuesday night.  Hopefully things will become more clear this weekend on exactly what happens with this one.

On a side note, milder weather is expected by the end of next week.  I have mentioned before that I am no expert in long range forecasting, but a pattern change looks likely by the end of next week...meaning other than a few brief cool downs, milder weather may be here to stay after another cold week to come.

Have a great weekend!

Monthly Weather Review: February 2013

February 2013 will end up going down in the record books in Clarksburg with both below average temperatures and below average precipitation.  Considering how cold and unsettled it was for much of the month, it may be hard to believe that snowfall was also slightly below normal.  The average high for the month ended up being a full 2 degrees below the 30 year average (or what I'm calling "normal" here).  Also of note is that precipitation was an inch and a half below what we would normally expect to see in February.  Low temperatures averaged out to be close to the 30 year normal and we ended up short on snowfall by only a little over an inch.